Happy Thoughts

The Syrian crisis is on pace to create one of the largest refugee crises in history. Already, about 680,000 people are registered, or waiting to register, with UNHCR in Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, and north Africa. That number obscures the reality, since a large proportion of refugees choose not to register at all.

Here in Jordan, the numbers are spiking massively. About 3,000 refugees cross the border every night – some 35,000 since January 1, compared to half that number in December. 60% of them are children, and 24% women. They’re fleeing violence, but also the collapse of services, fuel shortages, and hyperinflation. So far, there are about 300,000 of them in all, most of them crammed into a handful of camps and transit sites.

My colleagues are working around the clock, scrambling to install as many services as possible into a camp that just wasn’t designed to hold this many people. They’re trying to build new ones too, but that doesn’t happen overnight. 3,000 more, and 3,000 more, and so on and so on, every night – it’s impossible to keep up.

The king looks stressed, and who can blame him? The refugees are overwhelmingly Sunni, overwhelmingly anti-Assad, and very angry. Al-Qaeda has set up shop in Syria, and radical Islamists gain more traction with the populace every day. Jordan is looking across the border at a Taliban in the making, and increasingly, that wave is crashing onto their shores. If not managed carefully, Jordanian territory could become a rear base for the Free Syrian Army. So the border bristles with Jordanian troops, as do the camps. Refugees and military are not a happy mix. You’d be stressed too.

Lebanon is even more worried, as well they might be. The fragile balance that has held since the end of their own civil war is deeply threatened by what’s happening in Syria. Only the threat of bloodshed at home keeps their notoriously vitriolic politics in silent mode – but they’re still vibrating.

It’s hard to see anything but gloom on the horizon for Syria – or for its neighbours. And the more I see of King Abdullah, the more I’m persuaded that the west should heed His Majesty’s call and provide more money, fast. Jordan is a stone in the tides, and if it goes under the waves, the region follows.

So there’s a cheery thought for the day.

UPDATE: Here's a visual from the NYT showing the growth of Za'atari...